The US economy before the 2026 midterms, in five charts
Inflation is back at 3.7%, pay is falling behind prices and hiring has nearly stalled. Five charts of official data show the economy voters face on 3 November.
Plain Economy ·· 8 min readSourced data
Data as of 14 October 2026 (latest: consumer prices for Sep 2026, gasoline for the week of 12 Oct 2026).
THE IDEA IN ONE LINE
Prices are speeding up again while hiring slows.
A YEAR LATER
Fuel, prices and loans cost more. Unemployment is a little lower.
Grey bar: a year earlier. Coloured bar: latest. Sources: EIA, BLS and Freddie Mac, via FRED.
3.7%inflation, Sept 2026
$4.33gallon of gasoline
+29,000jobs added in Sept
7.40%30-year mortgage
On Tuesday 3 November 2026, Americans elect all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 senators. In a Pew Research Center survey taken from 28 September to 4 October, 84% of registered voters said the economy was very important to their vote, more than any other issue.
So what does the economy actually look like three weeks before the vote? Here are the official numbers, chart by chart, in plain language. No forecasts, no spin: just what was measured.
The short version
Prices are rising faster again, mostly because of fuel. Pay is rising more slowly than prices. Employers are adding very few jobs. And borrowing has become more expensive.
1. Inflation is rising again
Inflation measures how fast prices are going up. In September 2026, consumer prices were 3.7% higher than a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. In February, the figure was about 2.4%.
What changed? The war between the United States and Iran, which began in late February, pushed up the price of oil. In September alone, energy prices rose 5.2%, and gasoline accounted for about half of the month's increase.
Inflation is climbing again
Change in consumer prices over the previous 12 months, January 2021 to September 2026
All items
Excluding food and energy (core)
Source: BLS consumer price index and core index, seasonally adjusted, via FRED. 12-month changes calculated by Plain Economy; the official headline uses unadjusted data and can differ by 0.1 point. The gap is October 2025, when no index was published during the government shutdown.See the data
12-month change in consumer prices (%)
Month
All items
Core
Jan 2021
1.4
1.4
Feb 2021
1.7
1.3
Mar 2021
2.7
1.6
Apr 2021
4.1
3.0
May 2021
4.9
3.8
Jun 2021
5.3
4.4
Jul 2021
5.2
4.2
Aug 2021
5.2
3.9
Sep 2021
5.4
4.0
Oct 2021
6.2
4.6
Nov 2021
6.9
5.0
Dec 2021
7.2
5.5
Jan 2022
7.6
6.1
Feb 2022
7.9
6.5
Mar 2022
8.6
6.5
Apr 2022
8.2
6.2
May 2022
8.5
6.0
Jun 2022
9.0
5.9
Jul 2022
8.5
5.9
Aug 2022
8.2
6.3
Sep 2022
8.2
6.6
Oct 2022
7.8
6.3
Nov 2022
7.1
6.0
Dec 2022
6.4
5.7
Jan 2023
6.3
5.5
Feb 2023
6.0
5.5
Mar 2023
4.9
5.6
Apr 2023
5.0
5.5
May 2023
4.1
5.3
Jun 2023
3.1
4.9
Jul 2023
3.3
4.7
Aug 2023
3.7
4.4
Sep 2023
3.7
4.1
Oct 2023
3.3
4.0
Nov 2023
3.1
4.0
Dec 2023
3.3
3.9
Jan 2024
3.1
3.9
Feb 2024
3.2
3.8
Mar 2024
3.5
3.8
Apr 2024
3.4
3.6
May 2024
3.2
3.4
Jun 2024
3.0
3.3
Jul 2024
2.9
3.2
Aug 2024
2.6
3.3
Sep 2024
2.4
3.3
Oct 2024
2.6
3.3
Nov 2024
2.7
3.3
Dec 2024
2.9
3.2
Jan 2025
3.0
3.3
Feb 2025
2.8
3.1
Mar 2025
2.4
2.8
Apr 2025
2.3
2.8
May 2025
2.4
2.8
Jun 2025
2.7
2.9
Jul 2025
2.7
3.1
Aug 2025
2.9
3.1
Sep 2025
3.0
3.0
Oct 2025
not published
not published
Nov 2025
2.7
2.6
Dec 2025
2.7
2.6
Jan 2026
2.4
2.5
Feb 2026
2.4
2.5
Mar 2026
3.3
2.6
Apr 2026
3.8
2.7
May 2026
4.2
2.8
Jun 2026
3.5
2.6
Jul 2026
3.3
2.5
Aug 2026
3.4
2.4
Sep 2026
3.7
2.6
The blue line strips out food and energy, whose prices jump around. That “core” measure was 2.6% in September, close to where it was a year ago. In other words, most of the new inflation comes from fuel, not from everything at once. That matters: if oil prices fall, headline inflation could come down quickly. If they stay high, fuel costs tend to spread into transport, shipping and, eventually, other prices.
Few prices are as visible as the one on the sign at the gas station. On 12 October 2026, a gallon of regular cost $4.33 on average, up from $3.06 a year earlier: about 41% more. In the official inflation figures, gasoline was up 34.2% over the year to September.
Gasoline costs $1.27 a gallon more than a year ago
US average retail price of regular gasoline, dollars per gallon, weekly
Average price of regular gasoline ($ per gallon), weekly
Week of
Price
1 Jan 2024
3.089
8 Jan 2024
3.073
15 Jan 2024
3.058
22 Jan 2024
3.062
29 Jan 2024
3.095
5 Feb 2024
3.136
12 Feb 2024
3.192
19 Feb 2024
3.269
26 Feb 2024
3.249
4 Mar 2024
3.350
11 Mar 2024
3.376
18 Mar 2024
3.453
25 Mar 2024
3.523
1 Apr 2024
3.517
8 Apr 2024
3.591
15 Apr 2024
3.628
22 Apr 2024
3.668
29 Apr 2024
3.653
6 May 2024
3.643
13 May 2024
3.608
20 May 2024
3.584
27 May 2024
3.577
3 Jun 2024
3.516
10 Jun 2024
3.429
17 Jun 2024
3.435
24 Jun 2024
3.438
1 Jul 2024
3.479
8 Jul 2024
3.489
15 Jul 2024
3.496
22 Jul 2024
3.471
29 Jul 2024
3.484
5 Aug 2024
3.448
12 Aug 2024
3.414
19 Aug 2024
3.382
26 Aug 2024
3.313
2 Sep 2024
3.289
9 Sep 2024
3.236
16 Sep 2024
3.180
23 Sep 2024
3.185
30 Sep 2024
3.179
7 Oct 2024
3.136
14 Oct 2024
3.171
21 Oct 2024
3.144
28 Oct 2024
3.097
4 Nov 2024
3.069
11 Nov 2024
3.052
18 Nov 2024
3.046
25 Nov 2024
3.044
2 Dec 2024
3.034
9 Dec 2024
3.008
16 Dec 2024
3.016
23 Dec 2024
3.024
30 Dec 2024
3.006
6 Jan 2025
3.047
13 Jan 2025
3.043
20 Jan 2025
3.109
27 Jan 2025
3.103
3 Feb 2025
3.082
10 Feb 2025
3.128
17 Feb 2025
3.148
24 Feb 2025
3.125
3 Mar 2025
3.078
10 Mar 2025
3.069
17 Mar 2025
3.058
24 Mar 2025
3.115
31 Mar 2025
3.162
7 Apr 2025
3.243
14 Apr 2025
3.168
21 Apr 2025
3.141
28 Apr 2025
3.133
5 May 2025
3.147
12 May 2025
3.120
19 May 2025
3.173
26 May 2025
3.160
2 Jun 2025
3.127
9 Jun 2025
3.108
16 Jun 2025
3.139
23 Jun 2025
3.213
30 Jun 2025
3.164
7 Jul 2025
3.125
14 Jul 2025
3.130
21 Jul 2025
3.121
28 Jul 2025
3.123
4 Aug 2025
3.140
11 Aug 2025
3.118
18 Aug 2025
3.125
25 Aug 2025
3.147
1 Sep 2025
3.177
8 Sep 2025
3.192
15 Sep 2025
3.168
22 Sep 2025
3.173
29 Sep 2025
3.118
6 Oct 2025
3.124
13 Oct 2025
3.061
20 Oct 2025
3.019
27 Oct 2025
3.035
3 Nov 2025
3.019
10 Nov 2025
3.056
17 Nov 2025
3.062
24 Nov 2025
3.061
1 Dec 2025
2.985
8 Dec 2025
2.940
15 Dec 2025
2.895
22 Dec 2025
2.841
29 Dec 2025
2.811
5 Jan 2026
2.796
12 Jan 2026
2.779
19 Jan 2026
2.806
26 Jan 2026
2.853
2 Feb 2026
2.867
9 Feb 2026
2.902
16 Feb 2026
2.924
23 Feb 2026
2.937
2 Mar 2026
3.015
9 Mar 2026
3.502
16 Mar 2026
3.720
23 Mar 2026
3.961
30 Mar 2026
3.990
6 Apr 2026
4.120
13 Apr 2026
4.123
20 Apr 2026
4.044
27 Apr 2026
4.123
4 May 2026
4.452
11 May 2026
4.500
18 May 2026
4.490
25 May 2026
4.475
1 Jun 2026
4.305
8 Jun 2026
4.146
15 Jun 2026
4.052
22 Jun 2026
3.914
29 Jun 2026
3.831
6 Jul 2026
3.777
13 Jul 2026
3.855
20 Jul 2026
4.001
27 Jul 2026
4.096
3 Aug 2026
4.079
10 Aug 2026
4.006
17 Aug 2026
4.049
24 Aug 2026
4.085
31 Aug 2026
4.071
7 Sep 2026
4.157
14 Sep 2026
4.319
21 Sep 2026
4.478
28 Sep 2026
4.465
5 Oct 2026
4.354
12 Oct 2026
4.331
The peak so far was $4.50 in mid-May. Prices eased in early summer, then climbed again in September as attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz continued. On 14 October, Brent crude oil traded above $100 a barrel, according to CNBC.
Optional: what this costs a typical driver
Take a driver who buys 12 gallons a week. A year ago that cost about $36.73. Now it costs about $51.97.
12 × $3.061 = $36.73 12 × $4.331 = $51.97 $51.97 − $36.73 = $15.24 more per week
Over a month of about 4.3 weeks, that is roughly $66 more. Your own number depends on how much you drive and where you live: fuel prices differ a lot between states.
3. Pay is losing the race against prices
A pay rise only makes you better off if it is bigger than the rise in prices. For most of 2024 and 2025 it was: average hourly pay grew faster than prices. In spring 2026 that reversed.
Prices have overtaken pay
12-month change in average hourly earnings and in consumer prices
In September, average hourly earnings were up 3.0% on a year earlier while prices were up 3.7%. After adjusting for prices, the BLS says real average hourly earnings fell 0.7% over the year. Weekly earnings did a little better, down 0.1%, because people worked slightly longer hours.
This is an average across millions of workers. People whose pay rose faster, or who drive less, may be doing fine. Our guide to whether a pay rise is real walks through the calculation with a monthly budget.
4. Hiring has almost stopped
Employers added just 29,000 jobs in September, and the jobs report revised July to a loss of 10,000. Over the previous 12 months, the economy added an average of 45,000 jobs a month. Seven of the last 21 months show job losses.
Hiring has slowed to a crawl
Monthly change in the number of jobs, thousands
Source: BLS total nonfarm payroll employment, seasonally adjusted, via FRED. July and August 2026 as revised on 2 October 2026; the last two months will be revised again.See the data
Monthly change in payroll jobs (thousands)
Month
Change
Jan 2025
-48
Feb 2025
42
Mar 2025
67
Apr 2025
108
May 2025
13
Jun 2025
-20
Jul 2025
64
Aug 2025
-70
Sep 2025
76
Oct 2025
-140
Nov 2025
41
Dec 2025
-17
Jan 2026
160
Feb 2026
-156
Mar 2026
214
Apr 2026
148
May 2026
63
Jun 2026
31
Jul 2026
-10
Aug 2026
133
Sep 2026
29
Yet the unemployment rate is only 4.2%, and it has stayed between 4.1% and 4.3% since March. How can both be true? When the workforce grows slowly, the economy does not need many new jobs to keep unemployment steady. At its September meeting, the Federal Reserve put it this way: “Job gains have kept pace with the workforce.”
So the labor market is quiet rather than collapsing: few layoffs, but few new openings either. For someone looking for work, that can still mean a long search. About 1.9 million people have been unemployed for six months or more.
5. Borrowing costs are rising
On 16 September, the Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate by a quarter point, to a range of 3.75% to 4%, its first increase since 2023. The statement said inflation “remains elevated”. The Fed meets again on 27–28 October, one week before the election.
Markets had already moved. The average 30-year mortgage rate reached 7.40% in early October, up from 5.98% in late February and the highest since November 2023.
Optional: what the higher rate does to a monthly payment
Take a $300,000, 30-year fixed-rate loan and use the standard repayment formula, which spreads the loan and its interest into equal monthly payments.
At 5.98%: about $1,795 a month At 7.40%: about $2,077 a month Difference: about $282 a month
Payments exclude taxes and insurance. Someone who already has a fixed-rate mortgage does not pay more; the change hits new buyers and people who need to refinance.
What these charts do not show
Total output is still growing. The economy grew at a 2.2% annual rate from April to June 2026, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The first estimate for July to September is still to come.
Averages hide differences. A renter who drives a lot feels these numbers very differently from a homeowner with a fixed mortgage who works from home.
Data is revised. Job numbers in particular change as late surveys arrive. The October jobs report is due on 6 November, three days after the vote.
Why this matters on 3 November
Voters do not read inflation releases, but they see gas prices, grocery bills and mortgage quotes. Political scientists have long found that midterm results track how voters feel about the president and about their own incomes: our explainer on why the president's party usually loses seats shows 80 years of results in one chart. And whoever wins, there are limits to what Congress can do about any of this. We explain them in what the midterms can and cannot change for the economy.
