THE IDEA IN ONE LINE

Midterms usually punish the party in the White House.

A ballot with a tick going into a ballot box
20 MIDTERMS, 1946–2022

18 losses, 2 gains: the House record since 1946.

House result for the president's party in each midterm since 194618 squares for elections with House losses, 2 for gains (1998 and 2002).1946, Truman: -56 seats’461950, Truman: -28 seats’501954, Eisenhower: -18 seats’541958, Eisenhower: -48 seats’581962, Kennedy: -4 seats’621966, Johnson: -47 seats’661970, Nixon: -12 seats’701974, Ford: -48 seats’741978, Carter: -15 seats’781982, Reagan: -26 seats’821986, Reagan: -5 seats’861990, G. H. W. Bush: -8 seats’901994, Clinton: -54 seats’941998, Clinton: +4 seats’982002, G. W. Bush: +8 seats’022006, G. W. Bush: -30 seats’062010, Obama: -63 seats’102014, Obama: -13 seats’142018, Trump: -41 seats’182022, Biden: -9 seats’22House result for the president's party in each midterm since 194618 squares for elections with House losses, 2 for gains (1998 and 2002).1946, Truman: -56 seats1950, Truman: -28 seats1954, Eisenhower: -18 seats1958, Eisenhower: -48 seats1962, Kennedy: -4 seats1966, Johnson: -47 seats1970, Nixon: -12 seats1974, Ford: -48 seats1978, Carter: -15 seats1982, Reagan: -26 seats1986, Reagan: -5 seats1990, G. H. W. Bush: -8 seats1994, Clinton: -54 seats1998, Clinton: +4 seats2002, G. W. Bush: +8 seats2006, G. W. Bush: -30 seats2010, Obama: -63 seats2014, Obama: -13 seats2018, Trump: -41 seats2022, Biden: -9 seats

Lost seats: 18 Gained seats: 2

One square per midterm election. Source: The American Presidency Project.

18 of 20midterms with House losses

26seats lost on average

63biggest loss (2010)

2exceptions: 1998, 2002

Midterm elections fall halfway through a president's four-year term. The president is not on the ballot, but the president's party usually pays a price anyway. Since the Second World War, that pattern has been one of the most reliable in American politics.

Remember this

In 18 of the 20 midterms from 1946 to 2022, the president's party lost seats in the House. On average it lost about 26.

Eighty years in one chart

Each bar shows how many House seats the president's party gained or lost. Bars below the line are losses.

The president's party lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterms

House seats gained or lost by the president's party, midterm elections 1946–2022

House seats gained or lost by the president's party in midterms, 1946 to 2022Bars below zero in 18 of 20 elections. The biggest losses were 63 seats in 2010 and 56 in 1946. The only gains were 4 seats in 1998 and 8 in 2002.-60-40-2001946, Truman: -56 seats19461950, Truman: -28 seats1954, Eisenhower: -18 seats19541958, Eisenhower: -48 seats1962, Kennedy: -4 seats19621966, Johnson: -47 seats1970, Nixon: -12 seats19701974, Ford: -48 seats1978, Carter: -15 seats19781982, Reagan: -26 seats1986, Reagan: -5 seats19861990, G. H. W. Bush: -8 seats1994, Clinton: -54 seats19941998, Clinton: +4 seats2002, G. W. Bush: +8 seats20022006, G. W. Bush: -30 seats2010, Obama: -63 seats20102014, Obama: -13 seats2018, Trump: -41 seats20182022, Biden: -9 seatsHouse seats gained or lost by the president's party in midterms, 1946 to 2022Bars below zero in 18 of 20 elections. The biggest losses were 63 seats in 2010 and 56 in 1946. The only gains were 4 seats in 1998 and 8 in 2002.-60-40-2001946, Truman: -56 seats19461950, Truman: -28 seats1954, Eisenhower: -18 seats1958, Eisenhower: -48 seats1962, Kennedy: -4 seats19621966, Johnson: -47 seats1970, Nixon: -12 seats1974, Ford: -48 seats1978, Carter: -15 seats19781982, Reagan: -26 seats1986, Reagan: -5 seats1990, G. H. W. Bush: -8 seats1994, Clinton: -54 seats19941998, Clinton: +4 seats2002, G. W. Bush: +8 seats2006, G. W. Bush: -30 seats2010, Obama: -63 seats20102014, Obama: -13 seats2018, Trump: -41 seats2022, Biden: -9 seats
Source: The American Presidency Project, UC Santa Barbara.
See the data
Seats gained or lost by the president's party in midterm elections
YearPresidentHouseSenateApproval (%)
1946Truman (D)-56-1227
1950Truman (D)-28-641
1954Eisenhower (R)-18-162
1958Eisenhower (R)-48-1357
1962Kennedy (D)-4+361
1966Johnson (D)-47-444
1970Nixon (R)-12+258
1974Ford (R)-48-553
1978Carter (D)-15-345
1982Reagan (R)-26+142
1986Reagan (R)-5-864
1990G. H. W. Bush (R)-8-157
1994Clinton (D)-54-848
1998Clinton (D)+4065
2002G. W. Bush (R)+8+267
2006G. W. Bush (R)-30-637
2010Obama (D)-63-645
2014Obama (D)-13-941
2018Trump (R)-41+244
2022Biden (D)-9+140

The losses can be huge. Democrats under Barack Obama lost 63 seats in 2010; Democrats under Harry Truman lost 56 in 1946. In 1994, Bill Clinton's party lost 54 seats and control of the House for the first time in 40 years.

Only twice did the president's party gain seats: in 1998 under Clinton (+4) and in 2002 under George W. Bush (+8), the first midterm after the attacks of 11 September 2001.

Optional: how the average is calculated

Add the 20 results, then divide by 20. The 18 losses add up to 525 seats and the two gains to 12 seats.

(−525 + 12) ÷ 20 = −25.65 ≈ −26 seats

The median, the middle result when they are sorted, is a loss of 22 seats. It is a little smaller than the average because a few very large losses pull the average down.

The Senate is less predictable

In the Senate, the president's party lost seats in 13 of those 20 elections. The pattern is weaker because only about a third of the Senate is up for election each time, so the result depends heavily on which seats happen to be on the ballot. In 2018, for example, Republicans lost 41 House seats but gained two in the Senate.

Why does this happen?

Political scientists offer several explanations, and they can all be partly true:

  • A referendum on the president. With no presidential race, many voters use the midterm to say how they feel about the person in the White House.
  • Turnout changes. Fewer people vote in midterms, and voters who are unhappy are often more motivated to turn out than those who are content.
  • Balance. Some voters like the idea of a check on whoever holds the presidency.

Where the economy comes in

In a well-known 1975 study in the American Political Science Review, Edward Tufte found that two things went a long way to explain midterm results: the president's approval rating and the change in people's real disposable income, meaning income after taxes and after adjusting for prices, in the year of the election.

The second chart shows the first of those factors. Presidents with high approval, like Clinton in 1998 and Bush in 2002, avoided losses. Presidents with low approval tended to lose more.

Popular presidents lose fewer seats

Presidential approval before the election against House seats won or lost

Presidential approval and midterm House seat changes, 1946 to 2022Presidents with approval above 60% lost few seats or gained some, as in 1998 and 2002. Presidents below 50% usually lost more. In mid-August 2026, the American Presidency Project listed approval of 33%.221250221225020%30%40%50%60%70%Presidential approval before the election2026: 33%1946, Truman: approval 27%, -56 seats1950, Truman: approval 41%, -28 seats1954, Eisenhower: approval 62%, -18 seats1958, Eisenhower: approval 57%, -48 seats1962, Kennedy: approval 61%, -4 seats1966, Johnson: approval 44%, -47 seats1970, Nixon: approval 58%, -12 seats1974, Ford: approval 53%, -48 seats1978, Carter: approval 45%, -15 seats1982, Reagan: approval 42%, -26 seats1986, Reagan: approval 64%, -5 seats1990, G. H. W. Bush: approval 57%, -8 seats1994, Clinton: approval 48%, -54 seats1998, Clinton: approval 65%, +4 seats2002, G. W. Bush: approval 67%, +8 seats2006, G. W. Bush: approval 37%, -30 seats2010, Obama: approval 45%, -63 seats2014, Obama: approval 41%, -13 seats2018, Trump: approval 44%, -41 seats2022, Biden: approval 40%, -9 seats1946199419982002200620102022Presidential approval and midterm House seat changes, 1946 to 2022Presidents with approval above 60% lost few seats or gained some, as in 1998 and 2002. Presidents below 50% usually lost more. In mid-August 2026, the American Presidency Project listed approval of 33%.221250221225020%40%60%Presidential approval before the election2026: 33%1946, Truman: approval 27%, -56 seats1950, Truman: approval 41%, -28 seats1954, Eisenhower: approval 62%, -18 seats1958, Eisenhower: approval 57%, -48 seats1962, Kennedy: approval 61%, -4 seats1966, Johnson: approval 44%, -47 seats1970, Nixon: approval 58%, -12 seats1974, Ford: approval 53%, -48 seats1978, Carter: approval 45%, -15 seats1982, Reagan: approval 42%, -26 seats1986, Reagan: approval 64%, -5 seats1990, G. H. W. Bush: approval 57%, -8 seats1994, Clinton: approval 48%, -54 seats1998, Clinton: approval 65%, +4 seats2002, G. W. Bush: approval 67%, +8 seats2006, G. W. Bush: approval 37%, -30 seats2010, Obama: approval 45%, -63 seats2014, Obama: approval 41%, -13 seats2018, Trump: approval 44%, -41 seats2022, Biden: approval 40%, -9 seats1946199419982002200620102022
Source: The American Presidency Project. Approval is the last reading the source lists between August and late October of each year; the 2026 line shows its mid-August 2026 reading.

The relationship is real but loose. Obama's approval was 45% in 2010, and his party lost 63 seats; Joe Biden's was 40% in 2022, and his party lost only 9. How many seats a party has to defend, how district lines are drawn, the quality of candidates and the big issues of the moment all matter too.

What this means for 2026

History is not destiny, but it sets expectations. The American Presidency Project lists President Trump's approval at 33% in mid-August 2026, below every president in its table except Truman in 1946. The economic signal Tufte looked at, real income, is also weak: average hourly pay fell 0.7% after adjusting for prices over the year to September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That does not tell us the result. Republicans start with a narrow House majority, and the Senate map matters more than history. But it explains why forecasters, as of mid-October, see Democrats as favourites to win the House. For the economic picture in detail, read the US economy before the midterms, in five charts. For what a new Congress could actually change, read what the midterms can and cannot change. And for investors: what the S&P 500 has done after every midterm since 1950.

Sources

Seat changes count the result on election night as recorded by the source; special elections and party switches between elections are not included.

MORE ON THE 2026 MIDTERMS

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The US economy before the 2026 midterms, in five charts
Stocks after the midterms: the S&P 500 rose in the year after every midterm since 1950
What the 2026 midterms can change for the economy, and what they can't