What is the VIX? Calm stocks and rising bond yields

THE IDEA IN ONE LINE

A quiet stock market can still face expensive borrowing.

TWO DIFFERENT QUESTIONS

Calm shares. Costly loans. Both can be true.

15.27VIX: expected share-price swings

5.21%10-year US government yield

15.27VIX, 13 October close

5.21%10-year yield, 13 October

30 daysthe VIX's forward horizon

±4.3%illustrative 30-day swing at VIX 15

A stock-market headline says investors are calm. Another says borrowing costs are rising. How can both be right?

They are asking different questions. The VIX asks how much US shares might move soon. A bond yield tells you the return available from lending money. A quiet share market can sit beside expensive borrowing.

What is the VIX, in plain English?

Imagine two bus journeys. One is smooth; the other jolts around every corner. Both can finish at the same destination. The difference is how much you move along the way.

In markets, those movements are called volatility. The VIX uses the prices of options on the S&P 500, an index of large US companies, to estimate expected volatility over the next 30 days. An option is a contract giving its buyer the right to buy or sell at an agreed price. Cboe combines prices across many such contracts (methodology).

Higher VIX means larger swings are being priced in; lower VIX means smaller swings. It does not say which direction shares will go. The familiar nickname “fear index” is useful shorthand, but fear is not what the formula directly measures (Cboe overview).

What the dated figures show

On 13 Oct 2026, the VIX closed at 15.27. The chart below puts that reading in the context of the year, rather than treating one day's number as a prediction.

A relatively quiet reading, after a bumpier year

VIX daily close, index points, January–October 2026

See the data

VIX daily closes (index points)

Date	VIX
2 Jan 2026	14.51
5 Jan 2026	14.90
6 Jan 2026	14.75
7 Jan 2026	15.38
8 Jan 2026	15.45
9 Jan 2026	14.49
12 Jan 2026	15.12
13 Jan 2026	15.98
14 Jan 2026	16.75
15 Jan 2026	15.84
16 Jan 2026	15.86
19 Jan 2026	18.84
20 Jan 2026	20.09
21 Jan 2026	16.90
22 Jan 2026	15.64
23 Jan 2026	16.09
26 Jan 2026	16.15
27 Jan 2026	16.35
28 Jan 2026	16.35
29 Jan 2026	16.88
30 Jan 2026	17.44
2 Feb 2026	16.34
3 Feb 2026	18.00
4 Feb 2026	18.64
5 Feb 2026	21.77
6 Feb 2026	17.76
9 Feb 2026	17.36
10 Feb 2026	17.79
11 Feb 2026	17.65
12 Feb 2026	20.82
13 Feb 2026	20.60
16 Feb 2026	21.20
17 Feb 2026	20.29
18 Feb 2026	19.62
19 Feb 2026	20.23
20 Feb 2026	19.09
23 Feb 2026	21.01
24 Feb 2026	19.55
25 Feb 2026	17.93
26 Feb 2026	18.63
27 Feb 2026	19.86
2 Mar 2026	21.44
3 Mar 2026	23.57
4 Mar 2026	21.15
5 Mar 2026	23.75
6 Mar 2026	29.49
9 Mar 2026	25.50
10 Mar 2026	24.93
11 Mar 2026	24.23
12 Mar 2026	27.29
13 Mar 2026	27.19
16 Mar 2026	23.51
17 Mar 2026	22.37
18 Mar 2026	25.09
19 Mar 2026	24.06
20 Mar 2026	26.78
23 Mar 2026	26.15
24 Mar 2026	26.95
25 Mar 2026	25.33
26 Mar 2026	27.44
27 Mar 2026	31.05
30 Mar 2026	30.61
31 Mar 2026	25.25
1 Apr 2026	24.54
2 Apr 2026	23.87
6 Apr 2026	24.17
7 Apr 2026	25.78
8 Apr 2026	21.04
9 Apr 2026	19.49
10 Apr 2026	19.23
13 Apr 2026	19.12
14 Apr 2026	18.36
15 Apr 2026	18.17
16 Apr 2026	17.94
17 Apr 2026	17.48
20 Apr 2026	18.87
21 Apr 2026	19.50
22 Apr 2026	18.92
23 Apr 2026	19.31
24 Apr 2026	18.71
27 Apr 2026	18.02
28 Apr 2026	17.83
29 Apr 2026	18.81
30 Apr 2026	16.89
1 May 2026	16.99
4 May 2026	18.29
5 May 2026	17.38
6 May 2026	17.39
7 May 2026	17.08
8 May 2026	17.19
11 May 2026	18.38
12 May 2026	17.99
13 May 2026	17.87
14 May 2026	17.26
15 May 2026	18.43
18 May 2026	17.82
19 May 2026	18.06
20 May 2026	17.44
21 May 2026	16.76
22 May 2026	16.70
25 May 2026	16.59
26 May 2026	17.01
27 May 2026	16.29
28 May 2026	15.74
29 May 2026	15.32
1 Jun 2026	16.05
2 Jun 2026	15.77
3 Jun 2026	16.06
4 Jun 2026	15.40
5 Jun 2026	21.51
8 Jun 2026	18.92
9 Jun 2026	19.87
10 Jun 2026	22.22
11 Jun 2026	19.44
12 Jun 2026	17.68
15 Jun 2026	16.20
16 Jun 2026	16.41
17 Jun 2026	18.44
18 Jun 2026	16.40
19 Jun 2026	16.78
22 Jun 2026	17.28
23 Jun 2026	19.49
24 Jun 2026	18.63
25 Jun 2026	18.89
26 Jun 2026	18.41
29 Jun 2026	17.65
30 Jun 2026	16.45
1 Jul 2026	16.59
2 Jul 2026	16.15
3 Jul 2026	15.81
6 Jul 2026	15.57
7 Jul 2026	16.13
8 Jul 2026	16.90
9 Jul 2026	15.84
10 Jul 2026	15.03
13 Jul 2026	17.16
14 Jul 2026	16.50
15 Jul 2026	15.67
16 Jul 2026	16.73
17 Jul 2026	18.77
20 Jul 2026	18.65
21 Jul 2026	17.05
22 Jul 2026	16.64
23 Jul 2026	18.70
24 Jul 2026	18.58
27 Jul 2026	18.67
28 Jul 2026	18.21
29 Jul 2026	20.66
30 Jul 2026	17.09
31 Jul 2026	15.99
3 Aug 2026	15.86
4 Aug 2026	16.50
5 Aug 2026	15.81
6 Aug 2026	15.15
7 Aug 2026	14.90
10 Aug 2026	15.46
11 Aug 2026	15.28
12 Aug 2026	14.55
13 Aug 2026	14.63
14 Aug 2026	14.25
17 Aug 2026	15.19
18 Aug 2026	15.84
19 Aug 2026	14.89
20 Aug 2026	16.01
21 Aug 2026	15.13
24 Aug 2026	15.85
25 Aug 2026	15.45
26 Aug 2026	15.21
27 Aug 2026	14.51
28 Aug 2026	14.43
31 Aug 2026	14.92
1 Sep 2026	16.34
2 Sep 2026	15.20
3 Sep 2026	14.32
4 Sep 2026	14.53
7 Sep 2026	15.30
8 Sep 2026	15.72
9 Sep 2026	16.46
10 Sep 2026	17.84
11 Sep 2026	15.84
14 Sep 2026	17.10
15 Sep 2026	17.20
16 Sep 2026	17.71
17 Sep 2026	15.44
18 Sep 2026	14.81
21 Sep 2026	14.87
22 Sep 2026	14.21
23 Sep 2026	15.18
24 Sep 2026	15.67
25 Sep 2026	14.87
28 Sep 2026	16.07
29 Sep 2026	16.04
30 Sep 2026	16.34
1 Oct 2026	16.39
2 Oct 2026	15.31
5 Oct 2026	15.52
6 Oct 2026	15.01
7 Oct 2026	15.08
8 Oct 2026	15.41
9 Oct 2026	14.84
12 Oct 2026	15.21
13 Oct 2026	15.27

These figures deliberately stop on 13 October, the latest observation shown on the FRED VIX page when checked. They are not today's live price. A reading can change before a headline has finished doing the rounds.

Government borrowing has become dearer

US 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield, percent a year

See the data

US 10-year Treasury constant-maturity yield (percent)

Date	Yield
2 Jan 2026	4.19%
5 Jan 2026	4.17%
6 Jan 2026	4.18%
7 Jan 2026	4.15%
8 Jan 2026	4.19%
9 Jan 2026	4.18%
12 Jan 2026	4.19%
13 Jan 2026	4.18%
14 Jan 2026	4.15%
15 Jan 2026	4.17%
16 Jan 2026	4.24%
20 Jan 2026	4.30%
21 Jan 2026	4.26%
22 Jan 2026	4.26%
23 Jan 2026	4.24%
26 Jan 2026	4.22%
27 Jan 2026	4.24%
28 Jan 2026	4.26%
29 Jan 2026	4.24%
30 Jan 2026	4.26%
2 Feb 2026	4.29%
3 Feb 2026	4.28%
4 Feb 2026	4.29%
5 Feb 2026	4.21%
6 Feb 2026	4.22%
9 Feb 2026	4.22%
10 Feb 2026	4.16%
11 Feb 2026	4.18%
12 Feb 2026	4.09%
13 Feb 2026	4.04%
17 Feb 2026	4.05%
18 Feb 2026	4.09%
19 Feb 2026	4.08%
20 Feb 2026	4.08%
23 Feb 2026	4.03%
24 Feb 2026	4.04%
25 Feb 2026	4.05%
26 Feb 2026	4.02%
27 Feb 2026	3.97%
2 Mar 2026	4.05%
3 Mar 2026	4.06%
4 Mar 2026	4.09%
5 Mar 2026	4.13%
6 Mar 2026	4.15%
9 Mar 2026	4.12%
10 Mar 2026	4.15%
11 Mar 2026	4.21%
12 Mar 2026	4.27%
13 Mar 2026	4.28%
16 Mar 2026	4.23%
17 Mar 2026	4.20%
18 Mar 2026	4.26%
19 Mar 2026	4.25%
20 Mar 2026	4.39%
23 Mar 2026	4.34%
24 Mar 2026	4.39%
25 Mar 2026	4.33%
26 Mar 2026	4.42%
27 Mar 2026	4.44%
30 Mar 2026	4.35%
31 Mar 2026	4.30%
1 Apr 2026	4.33%
2 Apr 2026	4.31%
3 Apr 2026	4.35%
6 Apr 2026	4.34%
7 Apr 2026	4.33%
8 Apr 2026	4.29%
9 Apr 2026	4.29%
10 Apr 2026	4.31%
13 Apr 2026	4.30%
14 Apr 2026	4.26%
15 Apr 2026	4.29%
16 Apr 2026	4.32%
17 Apr 2026	4.26%
20 Apr 2026	4.26%
21 Apr 2026	4.30%
22 Apr 2026	4.30%
23 Apr 2026	4.34%
24 Apr 2026	4.31%
27 Apr 2026	4.35%
28 Apr 2026	4.36%
29 Apr 2026	4.42%
30 Apr 2026	4.40%
1 May 2026	4.39%
4 May 2026	4.45%
5 May 2026	4.43%
6 May 2026	4.36%
7 May 2026	4.41%
8 May 2026	4.38%
11 May 2026	4.42%
12 May 2026	4.46%
13 May 2026	4.46%
14 May 2026	4.47%
15 May 2026	4.59%
18 May 2026	4.61%
19 May 2026	4.67%
20 May 2026	4.57%
21 May 2026	4.57%
22 May 2026	4.56%
26 May 2026	4.50%
27 May 2026	4.48%
28 May 2026	4.45%
29 May 2026	4.45%
1 Jun 2026	4.47%
2 Jun 2026	4.46%
3 Jun 2026	4.49%
4 Jun 2026	4.47%
5 Jun 2026	4.55%
8 Jun 2026	4.56%
9 Jun 2026	4.53%
10 Jun 2026	4.55%
11 Jun 2026	4.45%
12 Jun 2026	4.48%
15 Jun 2026	4.47%
16 Jun 2026	4.43%
17 Jun 2026	4.49%
18 Jun 2026	4.46%
22 Jun 2026	4.51%
23 Jun 2026	4.50%
24 Jun 2026	4.41%
25 Jun 2026	4.40%
26 Jun 2026	4.38%
29 Jun 2026	4.38%
30 Jun 2026	4.44%
1 Jul 2026	4.48%
2 Jul 2026	4.49%
6 Jul 2026	4.48%
7 Jul 2026	4.55%
8 Jul 2026	4.56%
9 Jul 2026	4.54%
10 Jul 2026	4.56%
13 Jul 2026	4.62%
14 Jul 2026	4.58%
15 Jul 2026	4.55%
16 Jul 2026	4.57%
17 Jul 2026	4.55%
20 Jul 2026	4.60%
21 Jul 2026	4.63%
22 Jul 2026	4.67%
23 Jul 2026	4.71%
24 Jul 2026	4.69%
27 Jul 2026	4.65%
28 Jul 2026	4.61%
29 Jul 2026	4.67%
30 Jul 2026	4.68%
31 Jul 2026	4.75%
3 Aug 2026	4.70%
4 Aug 2026	4.63%
5 Aug 2026	4.63%
6 Aug 2026	4.69%
7 Aug 2026	4.65%
10 Aug 2026	4.72%
11 Aug 2026	4.70%
12 Aug 2026	4.68%
13 Aug 2026	4.63%
14 Aug 2026	4.68%
17 Aug 2026	4.72%
18 Aug 2026	4.71%
19 Aug 2026	4.65%
20 Aug 2026	4.69%
21 Aug 2026	4.74%
24 Aug 2026	4.70%
25 Aug 2026	4.64%
26 Aug 2026	4.66%
27 Aug 2026	4.67%
28 Aug 2026	4.73%
31 Aug 2026	4.75%
1 Sep 2026	4.79%
2 Sep 2026	4.79%
3 Sep 2026	4.77%
4 Sep 2026	4.78%
8 Sep 2026	4.80%
9 Sep 2026	4.83%
10 Sep 2026	4.95%
11 Sep 2026	4.96%
14 Sep 2026	4.97%
15 Sep 2026	5.00%
16 Sep 2026	5.01%
17 Sep 2026	4.94%
18 Sep 2026	5.01%
21 Sep 2026	4.96%
22 Sep 2026	4.96%
23 Sep 2026	5.11%
24 Sep 2026	5.18%
25 Sep 2026	5.17%
28 Sep 2026	5.24%
29 Sep 2026	5.26%
30 Sep 2026	5.29%
1 Oct 2026	5.24%
2 Oct 2026	5.28%
5 Oct 2026	5.31%
6 Oct 2026	5.27%
7 Oct 2026	5.28%
8 Oct 2026	5.22%
9 Oct 2026	5.24%
13 Oct 2026	5.21%

The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.21% on the same date, compared with 4.19% at the first available observation this year. The broad picture is higher government borrowing yields alongside a relatively low VIX reading.

Why can bond yields rise without a VIX panic?

Think of a bakery owner reviewing two bills. The rent has become expensive, but daily sales are steady. The high rent and the steady sales describe different parts of the business.

Likewise, the interest available on a ten-year loan and the swings anticipated in shares over one month measure different things. A higher yield need not mean investors expect shares to jump around tomorrow.

Inflation can erode what fixed interest payments buy. Interest-rate changes also affect existing bond prices: when market rates rise, prices of fixed-rate bonds generally fall. The SEC's bond guide explains both risks. Those concerns can matter to a lender even during a quiet stretch for shares.

That is an explanation of how the signals can coexist, not proof of what caused this year's moves. The two charts alone cannot identify the cause. Our guide to Big Tech borrowing for AI explains another part of borrowing costs: the extra interest companies pay above government bonds.

Does VIX 15 mean a 15% fall is coming?

No. The number is expressed on an annualised scale even though it looks ahead 30 days. It measures the size of possible moves, up or down, rather than predicting a fall (Cboe's explanation).

Twice the VIX means roughly twice the implied swing

Illustration: approximate 30-day move in either direction, not a forecast

See the data

Hypothetical VIX levels and approximate 30-day swings

VIX	Move in either direction
15	±4.3%
30	±8.6%

How to read the next headline

• Check the date. A daily close and a live quote are different observations.
• Check the question. Is the story about expected share-price swings, borrowing costs, or something else?
• Check the horizon. One quiet month says little about the next ten years.

For another example of separating a number from a headline, see why prices can rise even when inflation falls.

What this does not tell you

• A low VIX does not rule out a sudden shock or a future fall in share prices.
• The VIX describes S&P 500 options, not the risk of every company, bond or household budget.
• Two lines moving differently do not establish cause and effect.
• The VIX index itself cannot be bought directly; products linked to it behave differently (Cboe).