Fear & Greed Index: opportunity or a warning?

THE IDEA IN ONE LINE

Fear describes the market's mood; it does not price the business.

MOOD IS NOT VALUE

A frightened market can contain bargains and damaged businesses.

7equally weighted signals

0–100a score, not a percentage of people

7equally weighted inputs

0–100CNN score range

20 → 16example: earnings hold

20 → 40example: earnings fall

Extreme fear is a reason to investigate, not an automatic instruction to buy. CNN's Fear & Greed Index describes market behaviour; it does not establish what companies are worth or predict when prices will turn. Fear can accompany an overreaction, a sensible reassessment of bad news, or both. A crisis can create attractive prices while also destroying businesses. The useful task is to connect the mood to orders, future earnings and financing conditions, then consider the losses and waiting time a portfolio can bear. There is no guaranteed test that separates a bargain from a worsening crisis in advance.

Seven signals describe behaviour, not fair value

CNN combines seven equally weighted signals on a 0–100 scale. Low means fear; high means greed. It compares deviations from normal behaviour. A score of 20 does not mean 20% of investors are afraid.

Seven signals share the same weight

Conceptual weights: 1/7 each, not today's market reading

See the data

The seven equally weighted inputs

Signal	Measure
Momentum	S&P 500 versus its 125-day average
Strength	NYSE 52-week highs versus lows
Breadth	Rising versus falling share volume
Options	Five-day average put/call ratio
Volatility	VIX versus its 50-day average
Safe havens	Stocks versus Treasuries over 20 days
Risky debt	Lower-quality bond yield gap

These are the integer bands in CNN's current page code. Its risky-debt chart refers to investment-grade bonds, while its explanatory prose refers to government debt; the benchmark description is internally inconsistent. CNN's public explanation does not supply a fully reproducible specification for every score transformation.

The composite contains prices and price-based comparisons. A fall can therefore help produce a fearful reading: the reading is partly describing the fall itself. Treating it as an independent cause or forecast reverses that relationship. This is an interpretation of the inputs, not a statistical result. The index's designer describes it as a framework for understanding sentiment, rather than a trading system.

Fear can persist while prices fall further; greed can persist while businesses grow. Neither label proves that shares are cheap or expensive. Also, CNN's stock-market measure differs from Alternative.me's Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index: a shared 0–100 scale does not make their methods interchangeable.

Optimism can raise willingness to pay and reduce the extra return investors require for taking risk. Rising prices can reflect genuine earnings growth, excessive expectations, or a mixture. A greedy reading does not identify a market top or make selling automatically correct; the business outlook still matters.

Prices move when people accept different offers

Imagine a shop with buyers posting prices they will pay and sellers posting prices they will accept. An exchange keeps a changing list of such orders. The bid is a buying offer; the ask is a selling offer. A market order seeks immediate execution at available prices. A limit order sets a price or better, but might never trade (SEC explanation).

Every executed share has a buyer and a seller. Saying there are literally “more sellers than buyers” misses the mechanism; it also confuses shares with people. One seller can trade with several buyers. What becomes unbalanced is urgency, and the shares offered against available buying orders at a particular price (NYSE-filed economic report, notes 4–5).

An urgent sale can reach lower bids

Hypothetical 150-share market sale; displayed orders stay unchanged

See the data

Simplified buy orders before a 150-share sale

Buy price	Shares available	Shares sold
$100	100	100
$99	100	50

Here buyers initially offer to buy 100 shares at $100 and another 100 at $99. Someone urgently sells 150 shares. With those orders unchanged, 100 trade at $100 and 50 at $99. The last transaction price falls to $99. There was a buyer for every share.

The reverse also works: if 100 shares are offered at $100 and another 100 at $101, an urgent 150-share purchase takes the first 100 at $100 and the next 50 at $101. Optimistic buyers can move up through selling offers. These examples deliberately simplify markets with changing quotes, multiple venues and transaction costs. The last price is not a promise that a new order receives the same price.

Fear and optimism matter when they change orders. Bad news can reduce expected profits or make investors demand greater compensation for uncertainty. Higher safe interest rates can also reduce what they will pay for future earnings. Those are potentially rational changes, not proof of panic; the Federal Reserve's pricing explanation separates future payoffs, interest rates and compensation for risk.

Borrowing can amplify a decline. Investors using borrowed cash can face demands for more collateral, the assets backing their loans. Brokers can sell holdings to cover a shortfall, sometimes without first issuing a call (FINRA). Such sales can lower collateral values for other borrowers and provoke further selling, a feedback mechanism explained by the Federal Reserve. Some sellers need cash or must reduce debt; a sale alone does not reveal their emotions.

A cheaper sticker does not prove a cheaper business

Suppose a share costs $100 and the business is expected to earn $5 per share over the next year. Price divided by expected earnings is 20: buyers pay $20 for each dollar of forecast annual earnings. This price-to-earnings ratio, often shortened to P/E, is one rough comparison of price with the business outlook.

A lower price can still mean a higher earnings multiple

Hypothetical price ÷ expected annual earnings per share; same forecast period

See the data

Consistent hypothetical annual earnings forecasts

Case	Share price	Expected earnings/share	Price/earnings
Before	$100	$5	20×
Earnings hold	$80	$5	16×
Earnings fall	$80	$2	40×

If the price falls to $80 but expected earnings remain $5, the ratio falls to 16. If expected earnings instead fall to $2, the same $80 price produces a ratio of 40. The sticker is lower in both cases; the relationship to expected earnings is very different. This is original arithmetic using one consistent forecast period, not a valuation of a real company.

Even 16 does not establish fair value. Future growth, borrowing costs, business risks and the reliability of forecasts matter. A high ratio does not by itself prove overvaluation either. Forecasts can be wrong, and negative earnings make this simple comparison unhelpful. There is no reason to assume yesterday's price was correct.

A forced sale could offer an attractive price to someone able to wait. A collapsing business could remain a poor purchase after a large fall. Both can exist in the same crisis. Distinguishing them requires uncertain estimates of what the business can earn and survive, rather than a confidence label on a sentiment dial.

Other indicators sharpen the questions

Useful indicators answer different questions. The following are checks on the story behind a price move, not a voting system in which three red lights certify a crash or three green lights certify a bargain.

A widening credit spread means riskier borrowers face a larger yield gap over government debt. It directs attention toward financing and credit risk. Breadth asks how widely a market move is shared, rather than whether a few large companies dominate it. But breadth, volatility and credit already contribute to CNN. The NFCI also includes VIX and credit measures. Their agreement is not independent confirmation from unrelated witnesses.

Financial stress has more than one shape

Chicago Fed NFCI, weekly, 5 January 2007–31 December 2021

See the data

NFCI weekly observations, revised history

Week ending	NFCI
5 Jan 2007	-0.644
12 Jan 2007	-0.657
19 Jan 2007	-0.669
26 Jan 2007	-0.678
2 Feb 2007	-0.682
9 Feb 2007	-0.680
16 Feb 2007	-0.673
23 Feb 2007	-0.661
2 Mar 2007	-0.645
9 Mar 2007	-0.631
16 Mar 2007	-0.619
23 Mar 2007	-0.611
30 Mar 2007	-0.605
6 Apr 2007	-0.601
13 Apr 2007	-0.598
20 Apr 2007	-0.593
27 Apr 2007	-0.586
4 May 2007	-0.577
11 May 2007	-0.568
18 May 2007	-0.559
25 May 2007	-0.551
1 Jun 2007	-0.545
8 Jun 2007	-0.542
15 Jun 2007	-0.539
22 Jun 2007	-0.534
29 Jun 2007	-0.522
6 Jul 2007	-0.497
13 Jul 2007	-0.451
20 Jul 2007	-0.382
27 Jul 2007	-0.288
3 Aug 2007	-0.176
10 Aug 2007	-0.056
17 Aug 2007	0.061
24 Aug 2007	0.155
31 Aug 2007	0.207
7 Sep 2007	0.223
14 Sep 2007	0.199
21 Sep 2007	0.143
28 Sep 2007	0.079
5 Oct 2007	0.018
12 Oct 2007	-0.022
19 Oct 2007	-0.029
26 Oct 2007	0.001
2 Nov 2007	0.068
9 Nov 2007	0.166
16 Nov 2007	0.277
23 Nov 2007	0.389
30 Nov 2007	0.483
7 Dec 2007	0.547
14 Dec 2007	0.574
21 Dec 2007	0.564
28 Dec 2007	0.526
4 Jan 2008	0.478
11 Jan 2008	0.433
18 Jan 2008	0.409
25 Jan 2008	0.416
1 Feb 2008	0.445
8 Feb 2008	0.507
15 Feb 2008	0.592
22 Feb 2008	0.692
29 Feb 2008	0.792
7 Mar 2008	0.884
14 Mar 2008	0.946
21 Mar 2008	0.971
28 Mar 2008	0.951
4 Apr 2008	0.899
11 Apr 2008	0.825
18 Apr 2008	0.742
25 Apr 2008	0.656
2 May 2008	0.580
9 May 2008	0.525
16 May 2008	0.492
23 May 2008	0.488
30 May 2008	0.509
6 Jun 2008	0.555
13 Jun 2008	0.610
20 Jun 2008	0.666
27 Jun 2008	0.718
4 Jul 2008	0.749
11 Jul 2008	0.758
18 Jul 2008	0.747
25 Jul 2008	0.719
1 Aug 2008	0.688
8 Aug 2008	0.672
15 Aug 2008	0.681
22 Aug 2008	0.738
29 Aug 2008	0.847
5 Sep 2008	1.016
12 Sep 2008	1.237
19 Sep 2008	1.519
26 Sep 2008	1.800
3 Oct 2008	2.080
10 Oct 2008	2.333
17 Oct 2008	2.532
24 Oct 2008	2.679
31 Oct 2008	2.804
7 Nov 2008	2.900
14 Nov 2008	2.982
21 Nov 2008	3.058
28 Nov 2008	3.084
5 Dec 2008	3.075
12 Dec 2008	3.010
19 Dec 2008	2.887
26 Dec 2008	2.729
2 Jan 2009	2.576
9 Jan 2009	2.424
16 Jan 2009	2.300
23 Jan 2009	2.209
30 Jan 2009	2.148
6 Feb 2009	2.118
13 Feb 2009	2.118
20 Feb 2009	2.134
27 Feb 2009	2.149
6 Mar 2009	2.152
13 Mar 2009	2.115
20 Mar 2009	2.042
27 Mar 2009	1.938
3 Apr 2009	1.813
10 Apr 2009	1.672
17 Apr 2009	1.529
24 Apr 2009	1.388
1 May 2009	1.253
8 May 2009	1.129
15 May 2009	1.028
22 May 2009	0.944
29 May 2009	0.885
5 Jun 2009	0.837
12 Jun 2009	0.801
19 Jun 2009	0.770
26 Jun 2009	0.733
3 Jul 2009	0.687
10 Jul 2009	0.631
17 Jul 2009	0.565
24 Jul 2009	0.493
31 Jul 2009	0.425
7 Aug 2009	0.365
14 Aug 2009	0.316
21 Aug 2009	0.274
28 Aug 2009	0.238
4 Sep 2009	0.205
11 Sep 2009	0.172
18 Sep 2009	0.140
25 Sep 2009	0.111
2 Oct 2009	0.088
9 Oct 2009	0.067
16 Oct 2009	0.050
23 Oct 2009	0.037
30 Oct 2009	0.029
6 Nov 2009	0.020
13 Nov 2009	0.008
20 Nov 2009	-0.006
27 Nov 2009	-0.024
4 Dec 2009	-0.048
11 Dec 2009	-0.079
18 Dec 2009	-0.111
25 Dec 2009	-0.141
1 Jan 2010	-0.166
8 Jan 2010	-0.187
15 Jan 2010	-0.196
22 Jan 2010	-0.196
29 Jan 2010	-0.192
5 Feb 2010	-0.189
12 Feb 2010	-0.192
19 Feb 2010	-0.209
26 Feb 2010	-0.238
5 Mar 2010	-0.277
12 Mar 2010	-0.323
19 Mar 2010	-0.368
26 Mar 2010	-0.409
2 Apr 2010	-0.437
9 Apr 2010	-0.449
16 Apr 2010	-0.437
23 Apr 2010	-0.402
30 Apr 2010	-0.343
7 May 2010	-0.267
14 May 2010	-0.191
21 May 2010	-0.119
28 May 2010	-0.064
4 Jun 2010	-0.033
11 Jun 2010	-0.023
18 Jun 2010	-0.037
25 Jun 2010	-0.064
2 Jul 2010	-0.099
9 Jul 2010	-0.140
16 Jul 2010	-0.181
23 Jul 2010	-0.214
30 Jul 2010	-0.238
6 Aug 2010	-0.253
13 Aug 2010	-0.258
20 Aug 2010	-0.260
27 Aug 2010	-0.262
3 Sep 2010	-0.269
10 Sep 2010	-0.284
17 Sep 2010	-0.303
24 Sep 2010	-0.324
1 Oct 2010	-0.348
8 Oct 2010	-0.372
15 Oct 2010	-0.394
22 Oct 2010	-0.411
29 Oct 2010	-0.425
5 Nov 2010	-0.434
12 Nov 2010	-0.438
19 Nov 2010	-0.440
26 Nov 2010	-0.442
3 Dec 2010	-0.448
10 Dec 2010	-0.459
17 Dec 2010	-0.475
24 Dec 2010	-0.494
31 Dec 2010	-0.515
7 Jan 2011	-0.537
14 Jan 2011	-0.557
21 Jan 2011	-0.575
28 Jan 2011	-0.587
4 Feb 2011	-0.592
11 Feb 2011	-0.590
18 Feb 2011	-0.581
25 Feb 2011	-0.566
4 Mar 2011	-0.553
11 Mar 2011	-0.543
18 Mar 2011	-0.538
25 Mar 2011	-0.542
1 Apr 2011	-0.553
8 Apr 2011	-0.567
15 Apr 2011	-0.580
22 Apr 2011	-0.590
29 Apr 2011	-0.593
6 May 2011	-0.590
13 May 2011	-0.581
20 May 2011	-0.569
27 May 2011	-0.555
3 Jun 2011	-0.542
10 Jun 2011	-0.530
17 Jun 2011	-0.521
24 Jun 2011	-0.514
1 Jul 2011	-0.506
8 Jul 2011	-0.494
15 Jul 2011	-0.471
22 Jul 2011	-0.437
29 Jul 2011	-0.388
5 Aug 2011	-0.325
12 Aug 2011	-0.254
19 Aug 2011	-0.191
26 Aug 2011	-0.133
2 Sep 2011	-0.090
9 Sep 2011	-0.058
16 Sep 2011	-0.041
23 Sep 2011	-0.032
30 Sep 2011	-0.035
7 Oct 2011	-0.047
14 Oct 2011	-0.068
21 Oct 2011	-0.085
28 Oct 2011	-0.099
4 Nov 2011	-0.101
11 Nov 2011	-0.094
18 Nov 2011	-0.082
25 Nov 2011	-0.069
2 Dec 2011	-0.067
9 Dec 2011	-0.073
16 Dec 2011	-0.087
23 Dec 2011	-0.111
30 Dec 2011	-0.145
6 Jan 2012	-0.186
13 Jan 2012	-0.232
20 Jan 2012	-0.278
27 Jan 2012	-0.319
3 Feb 2012	-0.352
10 Feb 2012	-0.376
17 Feb 2012	-0.392
24 Feb 2012	-0.404
2 Mar 2012	-0.415
9 Mar 2012	-0.423
16 Mar 2012	-0.430
23 Mar 2012	-0.433
30 Mar 2012	-0.431
6 Apr 2012	-0.424
13 Apr 2012	-0.411
20 Apr 2012	-0.395
27 Apr 2012	-0.374
4 May 2012	-0.348
11 May 2012	-0.317
18 May 2012	-0.284
25 May 2012	-0.258
1 Jun 2012	-0.240
8 Jun 2012	-0.233
15 Jun 2012	-0.238
22 Jun 2012	-0.253
29 Jun 2012	-0.272
6 Jul 2012	-0.296
13 Jul 2012	-0.319
20 Jul 2012	-0.343
27 Jul 2012	-0.365
3 Aug 2012	-0.386
10 Aug 2012	-0.405
17 Aug 2012	-0.423
24 Aug 2012	-0.441
31 Aug 2012	-0.459
7 Sep 2012	-0.477
14 Sep 2012	-0.496
21 Sep 2012	-0.512
28 Sep 2012	-0.526
5 Oct 2012	-0.537
12 Oct 2012	-0.544
19 Oct 2012	-0.548
26 Oct 2012	-0.548
2 Nov 2012	-0.546
9 Nov 2012	-0.545
16 Nov 2012	-0.544
23 Nov 2012	-0.548
30 Nov 2012	-0.553
7 Dec 2012	-0.562
14 Dec 2012	-0.573
21 Dec 2012	-0.585
28 Dec 2012	-0.598
4 Jan 2013	-0.612
11 Jan 2013	-0.625
18 Jan 2013	-0.634
25 Jan 2013	-0.641
1 Feb 2013	-0.644
8 Feb 2013	-0.646
15 Feb 2013	-0.647
22 Feb 2013	-0.648
1 Mar 2013	-0.648
8 Mar 2013	-0.650
15 Mar 2013	-0.653
22 Mar 2013	-0.656
29 Mar 2013	-0.661
5 Apr 2013	-0.668
12 Apr 2013	-0.679
19 Apr 2013	-0.689
26 Apr 2013	-0.701
3 May 2013	-0.711
10 May 2013	-0.715
17 May 2013	-0.713
24 May 2013	-0.703
31 May 2013	-0.687
7 Jun 2013	-0.668
14 Jun 2013	-0.650
21 Jun 2013	-0.634
28 Jun 2013	-0.627
5 Jul 2013	-0.627
12 Jul 2013	-0.634
19 Jul 2013	-0.646
26 Jul 2013	-0.657
2 Aug 2013	-0.666
9 Aug 2013	-0.670
16 Aug 2013	-0.669
23 Aug 2013	-0.666
30 Aug 2013	-0.662
6 Sep 2013	-0.660
13 Sep 2013	-0.662
20 Sep 2013	-0.667
27 Sep 2013	-0.674
4 Oct 2013	-0.683
11 Oct 2013	-0.695
18 Oct 2013	-0.709
25 Oct 2013	-0.723
1 Nov 2013	-0.735
8 Nov 2013	-0.745
15 Nov 2013	-0.754
22 Nov 2013	-0.761
29 Nov 2013	-0.767
6 Dec 2013	-0.770
13 Dec 2013	-0.773
20 Dec 2013	-0.775
27 Dec 2013	-0.775
3 Jan 2014	-0.773
10 Jan 2014	-0.771
17 Jan 2014	-0.767
24 Jan 2014	-0.763
31 Jan 2014	-0.761
7 Feb 2014	-0.762
14 Feb 2014	-0.765
21 Feb 2014	-0.770
28 Feb 2014	-0.774
7 Mar 2014	-0.777
14 Mar 2014	-0.777
21 Mar 2014	-0.776
28 Mar 2014	-0.773
4 Apr 2014	-0.771
11 Apr 2014	-0.769
18 Apr 2014	-0.767
25 Apr 2014	-0.766
2 May 2014	-0.768
9 May 2014	-0.771
16 May 2014	-0.775
23 May 2014	-0.781
30 May 2014	-0.787
6 Jun 2014	-0.790
13 Jun 2014	-0.790
20 Jun 2014	-0.787
27 Jun 2014	-0.780
4 Jul 2014	-0.770
11 Jul 2014	-0.758
18 Jul 2014	-0.747
25 Jul 2014	-0.736
1 Aug 2014	-0.728
8 Aug 2014	-0.723
15 Aug 2014	-0.722
22 Aug 2014	-0.722
29 Aug 2014	-0.719
5 Sep 2014	-0.713
12 Sep 2014	-0.703
19 Sep 2014	-0.688
26 Sep 2014	-0.671
3 Oct 2014	-0.655
10 Oct 2014	-0.643
17 Oct 2014	-0.636
24 Oct 2014	-0.637
31 Oct 2014	-0.642
7 Nov 2014	-0.649
14 Nov 2014	-0.654
21 Nov 2014	-0.654
28 Nov 2014	-0.647
5 Dec 2014	-0.635
12 Dec 2014	-0.615
19 Dec 2014	-0.593
26 Dec 2014	-0.571
2 Jan 2015	-0.549
9 Jan 2015	-0.530
16 Jan 2015	-0.516
23 Jan 2015	-0.507
30 Jan 2015	-0.504
6 Feb 2015	-0.505
13 Feb 2015	-0.509
20 Feb 2015	-0.516
27 Feb 2015	-0.523
6 Mar 2015	-0.528
13 Mar 2015	-0.532
20 Mar 2015	-0.535
27 Mar 2015	-0.537
3 Apr 2015	-0.538
10 Apr 2015	-0.540
17 Apr 2015	-0.541
24 Apr 2015	-0.543
1 May 2015	-0.544
8 May 2015	-0.544
15 May 2015	-0.544
22 May 2015	-0.545
29 May 2015	-0.544
5 Jun 2015	-0.544
12 Jun 2015	-0.543
19 Jun 2015	-0.540
26 Jun 2015	-0.537
3 Jul 2015	-0.533
10 Jul 2015	-0.528
17 Jul 2015	-0.522
24 Jul 2015	-0.512
31 Jul 2015	-0.498
7 Aug 2015	-0.479
14 Aug 2015	-0.458
21 Aug 2015	-0.436
28 Aug 2015	-0.416
4 Sep 2015	-0.403
11 Sep 2015	-0.397
18 Sep 2015	-0.397
25 Sep 2015	-0.402
2 Oct 2015	-0.412
9 Oct 2015	-0.427
16 Oct 2015	-0.442
23 Oct 2015	-0.455
30 Oct 2015	-0.464
6 Nov 2015	-0.468
13 Nov 2015	-0.464
20 Nov 2015	-0.455
27 Nov 2015	-0.441
4 Dec 2015	-0.423
11 Dec 2015	-0.401
18 Dec 2015	-0.379
25 Dec 2015	-0.359
1 Jan 2016	-0.342
8 Jan 2016	-0.326
15 Jan 2016	-0.313
22 Jan 2016	-0.303
29 Jan 2016	-0.297
5 Feb 2016	-0.294
12 Feb 2016	-0.294
19 Feb 2016	-0.302
26 Feb 2016	-0.315
4 Mar 2016	-0.330
11 Mar 2016	-0.345
18 Mar 2016	-0.358
25 Mar 2016	-0.368
1 Apr 2016	-0.375
8 Apr 2016	-0.379
15 Apr 2016	-0.382
22 Apr 2016	-0.383
29 Apr 2016	-0.383
6 May 2016	-0.382
13 May 2016	-0.380
20 May 2016	-0.376
27 May 2016	-0.371
3 Jun 2016	-0.365
10 Jun 2016	-0.358
17 Jun 2016	-0.350
24 Jun 2016	-0.345
1 Jul 2016	-0.342
8 Jul 2016	-0.343
15 Jul 2016	-0.347
22 Jul 2016	-0.352
29 Jul 2016	-0.356
5 Aug 2016	-0.358
12 Aug 2016	-0.359
19 Aug 2016	-0.356
26 Aug 2016	-0.351
2 Sep 2016	-0.344
9 Sep 2016	-0.338
16 Sep 2016	-0.334
23 Sep 2016	-0.333
30 Sep 2016	-0.336
7 Oct 2016	-0.343
14 Oct 2016	-0.352
21 Oct 2016	-0.364
28 Oct 2016	-0.377
4 Nov 2016	-0.389
11 Nov 2016	-0.403
18 Nov 2016	-0.416
25 Nov 2016	-0.427
2 Dec 2016	-0.437
9 Dec 2016	-0.445
16 Dec 2016	-0.452
23 Dec 2016	-0.458
30 Dec 2016	-0.464
6 Jan 2017	-0.470
13 Jan 2017	-0.475
20 Jan 2017	-0.480
27 Jan 2017	-0.484
3 Feb 2017	-0.486
10 Feb 2017	-0.488
17 Feb 2017	-0.487
24 Feb 2017	-0.485
3 Mar 2017	-0.483
10 Mar 2017	-0.480
17 Mar 2017	-0.478
24 Mar 2017	-0.476
31 Mar 2017	-0.478
7 Apr 2017	-0.481
14 Apr 2017	-0.487
21 Apr 2017	-0.495
28 Apr 2017	-0.505
5 May 2017	-0.515
12 May 2017	-0.525
19 May 2017	-0.534
26 May 2017	-0.543
2 Jun 2017	-0.551
9 Jun 2017	-0.557
16 Jun 2017	-0.561
23 Jun 2017	-0.564
30 Jun 2017	-0.567
7 Jul 2017	-0.571
14 Jul 2017	-0.574
21 Jul 2017	-0.576
28 Jul 2017	-0.575
4 Aug 2017	-0.572
11 Aug 2017	-0.567
18 Aug 2017	-0.562
25 Aug 2017	-0.558
1 Sep 2017	-0.555
8 Sep 2017	-0.555
15 Sep 2017	-0.558
22 Sep 2017	-0.562
29 Sep 2017	-0.567
6 Oct 2017	-0.574
13 Oct 2017	-0.581
20 Oct 2017	-0.588
27 Oct 2017	-0.593
3 Nov 2017	-0.598
10 Nov 2017	-0.600
17 Nov 2017	-0.601
24 Nov 2017	-0.602
1 Dec 2017	-0.603
8 Dec 2017	-0.604
15 Dec 2017	-0.607
22 Dec 2017	-0.611
29 Dec 2017	-0.614
5 Jan 2018	-0.618
12 Jan 2018	-0.618
19 Jan 2018	-0.614
26 Jan 2018	-0.605
2 Feb 2018	-0.591
9 Feb 2018	-0.574
16 Feb 2018	-0.558
23 Feb 2018	-0.543
2 Mar 2018	-0.529
9 Mar 2018	-0.515
16 Mar 2018	-0.505
23 Mar 2018	-0.497
30 Mar 2018	-0.496
6 Apr 2018	-0.500
13 Apr 2018	-0.510
20 Apr 2018	-0.524
27 Apr 2018	-0.538
4 May 2018	-0.550
11 May 2018	-0.559
18 May 2018	-0.564
25 May 2018	-0.564
1 Jun 2018	-0.559
8 Jun 2018	-0.553
15 Jun 2018	-0.547
22 Jun 2018	-0.541
29 Jun 2018	-0.538
6 Jul 2018	-0.539
13 Jul 2018	-0.544
20 Jul 2018	-0.552
27 Jul 2018	-0.561
3 Aug 2018	-0.570
10 Aug 2018	-0.580
17 Aug 2018	-0.587
24 Aug 2018	-0.592
31 Aug 2018	-0.596
7 Sep 2018	-0.598
14 Sep 2018	-0.599
21 Sep 2018	-0.596
28 Sep 2018	-0.592
5 Oct 2018	-0.585
12 Oct 2018	-0.575
19 Oct 2018	-0.564
26 Oct 2018	-0.551
2 Nov 2018	-0.536
9 Nov 2018	-0.520
16 Nov 2018	-0.501
23 Nov 2018	-0.480
30 Nov 2018	-0.460
7 Dec 2018	-0.442
14 Dec 2018	-0.428
21 Dec 2018	-0.423
28 Dec 2018	-0.426
4 Jan 2019	-0.439
11 Jan 2019	-0.458
18 Jan 2019	-0.481
25 Jan 2019	-0.506
1 Feb 2019	-0.529
8 Feb 2019	-0.550
15 Feb 2019	-0.567
22 Feb 2019	-0.580
1 Mar 2019	-0.589
8 Mar 2019	-0.595
15 Mar 2019	-0.598
22 Mar 2019	-0.602
29 Mar 2019	-0.605
5 Apr 2019	-0.608
12 Apr 2019	-0.612
19 Apr 2019	-0.613
26 Apr 2019	-0.613
3 May 2019	-0.610
10 May 2019	-0.603
17 May 2019	-0.595
24 May 2019	-0.587
31 May 2019	-0.580
7 Jun 2019	-0.574
14 Jun 2019	-0.572
21 Jun 2019	-0.572
28 Jun 2019	-0.574
5 Jul 2019	-0.578
12 Jul 2019	-0.579
19 Jul 2019	-0.579
26 Jul 2019	-0.576
2 Aug 2019	-0.568
9 Aug 2019	-0.558
16 Aug 2019	-0.546
23 Aug 2019	-0.536
30 Aug 2019	-0.526
6 Sep 2019	-0.519
13 Sep 2019	-0.513
20 Sep 2019	-0.509
27 Sep 2019	-0.510
4 Oct 2019	-0.514
11 Oct 2019	-0.523
18 Oct 2019	-0.535
25 Oct 2019	-0.549
1 Nov 2019	-0.561
8 Nov 2019	-0.570
15 Nov 2019	-0.575
22 Nov 2019	-0.574
29 Nov 2019	-0.568
6 Dec 2019	-0.559
13 Dec 2019	-0.552
20 Dec 2019	-0.548
27 Dec 2019	-0.553
3 Jan 2020	-0.567
10 Jan 2020	-0.587
17 Jan 2020	-0.609
24 Jan 2020	-0.622
31 Jan 2020	-0.620
7 Feb 2020	-0.593
14 Feb 2020	-0.533
21 Feb 2020	-0.432
28 Feb 2020	-0.294
6 Mar 2020	-0.134
13 Mar 2020	0.031
20 Mar 2020	0.175
27 Mar 2020	0.267
3 Apr 2020	0.305
10 Apr 2020	0.292
17 Apr 2020	0.238
24 Apr 2020	0.159
1 May 2020	0.062
8 May 2020	-0.037
15 May 2020	-0.127
22 May 2020	-0.206
29 May 2020	-0.269
5 Jun 2020	-0.315
12 Jun 2020	-0.345
19 Jun 2020	-0.367
26 Jun 2020	-0.385
3 Jul 2020	-0.401
10 Jul 2020	-0.420
17 Jul 2020	-0.438
24 Jul 2020	-0.457
31 Jul 2020	-0.474
7 Aug 2020	-0.488
14 Aug 2020	-0.499
21 Aug 2020	-0.505
28 Aug 2020	-0.507
4 Sep 2020	-0.505
11 Sep 2020	-0.501
18 Sep 2020	-0.497
25 Sep 2020	-0.492
2 Oct 2020	-0.489
9 Oct 2020	-0.489
16 Oct 2020	-0.492
23 Oct 2020	-0.498
30 Oct 2020	-0.507
6 Nov 2020	-0.520
13 Nov 2020	-0.537
20 Nov 2020	-0.553
27 Nov 2020	-0.567
4 Dec 2020	-0.580
11 Dec 2020	-0.590
18 Dec 2020	-0.597
25 Dec 2020	-0.604
1 Jan 2021	-0.609
8 Jan 2021	-0.613
15 Jan 2021	-0.616
22 Jan 2021	-0.618
29 Jan 2021	-0.618
5 Feb 2021	-0.620
12 Feb 2021	-0.622
19 Feb 2021	-0.624
26 Feb 2021	-0.627
5 Mar 2021	-0.631
12 Mar 2021	-0.636
19 Mar 2021	-0.642
26 Mar 2021	-0.648
2 Apr 2021	-0.655
9 Apr 2021	-0.663
16 Apr 2021	-0.670
23 Apr 2021	-0.676
30 Apr 2021	-0.681
7 May 2021	-0.686
14 May 2021	-0.689
21 May 2021	-0.691
28 May 2021	-0.694
4 Jun 2021	-0.695
11 Jun 2021	-0.694
18 Jun 2021	-0.691
25 Jun 2021	-0.687
2 Jul 2021	-0.681
9 Jul 2021	-0.674
16 Jul 2021	-0.668
23 Jul 2021	-0.661
30 Jul 2021	-0.655
6 Aug 2021	-0.651
13 Aug 2021	-0.648
20 Aug 2021	-0.646
27 Aug 2021	-0.647
3 Sep 2021	-0.648
10 Sep 2021	-0.650
17 Sep 2021	-0.652
24 Sep 2021	-0.654
1 Oct 2021	-0.654
8 Oct 2021	-0.652
15 Oct 2021	-0.646
22 Oct 2021	-0.636
29 Oct 2021	-0.622
5 Nov 2021	-0.604
12 Nov 2021	-0.585
19 Nov 2021	-0.567
26 Nov 2021	-0.552
3 Dec 2021	-0.541
10 Dec 2021	-0.539
17 Dec 2021	-0.541
24 Dec 2021	-0.548
31 Dec 2021	-0.556

The NFCI combines 105 financial measures. Positive readings mean tighter-than-average conditions; negative readings mean looser conditions, relative to its historical sample since 1971 (Chicago Fed methodology). In the downloaded history, the selected 2007–2009 episode peaks at 3.084 on 28 November 2008; the 2020 maximum is 0.305 on 3 April 2020. These describe different stress episodes, not equivalent signals simply because both were frightening.

This chart uses all 783 weekly observations for 2007–2021, retrieved on 15 October 2026. History can be revised as new information arrives and estimates change. It is not the exact information available to an investor on each historical date. A lower peak does not mean 2020 was not a crisis: financial conditions do not measure total economic damage or crisis severity. Selecting two episodes explains context; it does not validate a prediction, buying threshold or profitable strategy. No historical CNN score or restricted ICE price series is reconstructed here.

Turn the reading into a research checklist

Start with the business: what changed in demand, costs, expected earnings, cash and debt? Then consider the price against several plausible futures, including a worse one. Ask whether borrowing and funding conditions suggest temporary selling pressure, lasting damage, or a mixture. Compare market breadth and declared sentiment while remembering overlapping inputs and different publication dates.

Finally ask about the portfolio: when is the cash needed, how concentrated are the holdings, and could further losses force a sale? The SEC's allocation guidance connects investment choices to time horizon and ability to accept losses. Diversification spreads risk; it does not eliminate loss. Buying in stages can spread entry decisions across time, but that is execution and risk management, not a guarantee of profit or a way to identify the bottom.

The productive response to extreme sentiment is a more explicit set of assumptions. Write down what would make the business outlook worse and what would make the price attractive despite that risk. A mood score cannot make those judgments for you, or remove the possibility of being wrong.